FOUS30 KWBC 150755
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

An upper trough traversing through the West this weekend is
expected to split which will send energy in the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest along with a strong southern stream cutoff low 
into the Four Corner that will exit into the Central/Southern 
Plains for the start of the week. A surface low pressure system
will forecast to spin up in the lee of the Rockies and deepen as it
tracks from the Plains through the Midwest. Scattered to widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall will be supported by this setup across
portions of the Southern Rockies and the adjacent Southern/Central
Plains.

Guidance is suggesting 1 to 2 inches of rain for central and
eastern portions of New Mexico, particularly over some of the same
areas that had several inches of snow last week. With rain on top 
of snow expected some locations will have an increased risk for 
flooding concerns. The Marginal Risk area that was already in 
effect was expanded westward to now cover central and eastern 
portions of New Mexico. The highest concentration of rainfall will
likely focus across parts of northern Texas/panhandle into western
Oklahoma. Consensus suggests areal average of 3 to 4.5 inches with
locally higher amounts possible. Therefore, a Slight Risk was
introduced with this issuance.

Campbell

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