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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | DAY1 ENHANCED RISK OK/KS |
April 1, 2025 7:39 AM * |
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ACUS01 KWNS 010539 SWODY1 SPC AC 010538 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development is possible this evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few supercells posing a risk for large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible, particularly across parts of north central Oklahoma into south central Kansas. ...Discussion... Amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America appears underway, with a seasonably strong cyclonic jet now digging inland of the central/southern California coast. An initially significant mid-level low within the large-scale troughing to the north of this feature appears to be in the process of devolving into at least a couple of significant short wave perturbations as it progresses inland of the northern Pacific coast. Models indicate that the lead perturbation will progress across the Rockies into the Great Plains today through tonight, and contribute to significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis over the north central Great Plains through middle Missouri Valley by 12Z Wednesday. A notable trailing perturbation is forecast to dig inland of the Pacific coast, near and west of the Sierra Nevada. Given the forecast synoptic pattern evolution, and intensifying lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (including 50-70+ kt southerly around 850 mb and 90-100+ kt southwesterly) across the south central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley late this evening through early Wednesday, the environment would seem at least conditionally supportive of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. However, low-level moisture return, in the wake of a still ongoing intrusion of cool/dry air to the east of the Rockies, remains a source of uncertainty, and a potentially limiting factor, concerning the risk for severe thunderstorms today through tonight. ...Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest... An initial narrow plume of low-level moisture return appears underway up the Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains. However, models continue to indicate that boundary-layer moistening, characterized by lower/mid 60s surface dew points, may not begin advecting to the north of the Red River until late afternoon. Even so, there appears potential for this moisture to rapidly advect northward, within deepening surface troughing, across parts of western and central Oklahoma into central Kansas through late evening. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that there may be sufficient destabilization to support the initiation of widely scattered thunderstorm development near the sharpening dryline, from parts of west central Kansas into the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity by late afternoon. Strongest storms probably will be focused across parts of southwestern Oklahoma into portions of the Texas South Plains, where the environment may become conducive to the evolution of supercells, though substantial mid-level inhibition may tend to limit eastward propagation away from the dryline. The most significant convective development still seems most probable during the mid to late evening, in association with the better low-level moisture return and destabilization, which is forecast to coincide with the substantive intensification of the wind fields in the 850-500 mb layer across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. This may focus near/east-northeast of a developing triple point low, generally forecast to track by a number of models across northwestern Oklahoma through south central Kansas during the 02/03-06Z time frame. Although the extent of upscale convective growth across this region remains unclear, the environment appears conducive at least to the evolution of several discrete supercells. These may be accompanied by large hail initially, and increasing tornadic potential in the presence of enlarging low-level hodographs and a moistening boundary layer across and northeast of the I-35 corridor. It is possible that elevated moisture return and destabilization could be sufficient to support a risk for thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail as far northeast as portions of the Upper Midwest by late tonight. ...Interior Valley of central California... Beneath cold air and an associated cyclonic vorticity center forecast to overspread the region late this afternoon, it appears that the environment could become conducive to an isolated strong storm or two, which gust pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 04/01/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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