ACUS02 KWNS 130701
SWODY2
SPC AC 130659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central and northeast
Gulf Coasts early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the
Carolinas Thursday evening and night. Organized severe potential
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley is forecast to dig southeastward on Thursday and
evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to deepen
Thursday night along a frontal boundary near the Coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward and amplify as it approaches the Pacific Coast and
eventually moves inland.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts
of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, aided by the mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and attendant
low-level jet. Low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken through
the day, which will tend to result in less convective organization
with time. However, if organized convection from late on
D1/Wednesday can persist into Thursday morning, then rich low-level
moisture and sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear could support
a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Probabilities may eventually be needed if it appears that some
severe threat may continue from overnight Wednesday into the first
part of Thursday.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of appreciable
surface moistening/destabilization near the Coastal Carolinas, as
the surface low deepens and tracks east-northeastward into Friday
morning. However, there appears to be some potential for the
effective warm front to overlap parts of coastal NC and the Outer
Banks during the evening, as stronger deep-layer flow and ascent
overspread the region. Increasingly widespread precipitation will
tend to limit destabilization, but favorable wind profiles will
support organized convective potential where modest buoyancy can
develop. Probabilities may eventually be needed near the coast and
Outer Banks, if confidence increases regarding the potential for
isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado later in the forecast
period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

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