ACUS03 KWNS 280741
SWODY3
SPC AC 280740

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys.  Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift
slowly across the central U.S. Sunday.  As this occurs, a deepening
surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes
region.  A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the
central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the
Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning.

...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand
across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the
advancing cold front.  Daytime heating, and continued northward flux
of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization.

Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri
northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and
possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas.  Local
severe risk may accompany this early-day convection.  The
aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support
renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially
from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading
eastward/expanding in coverage with time.

Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the
storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist,
with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing
substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated --
hodographs.  Supercells are expected within this environment, and
very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates
through the mid troposphere.  Along with the hail risk, damaging
wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into
bands occurs.  Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived.

Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight.
Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio
Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely
continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee
Valley/Gulf Coast states.

..Goss.. 03/28/2025

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