MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 301704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301704 
FLZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301704Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
Florida Peninsula through the afternoon. Sporadic damaging winds,
and perhaps large hail, will be possible, but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective development is underway across the
southeastern FL Peninsula as temperatures warm into the low to mid
80s within a moist and uncapped environment. Rapid lightning jumps
and cooling cloud top temperatures in some cells across southern FL
suggest that convection is beginning to realize the nearly 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE environment. Continued daytime heating will steepen
near-surface lapse rates and support an environment favorable for
damaging downburst winds through the afternoon. As storms spread
northward they should be influenced by slightly stronger mid-level
flow in proximity to a weak upper disturbance over northern FL. This
may promote some storm organization/longevity and attendant hail
threat; however, effective bulk wind shear values are forecast to
remain somewhat marginal (around 20-25 knots) through the day, and
storm interactions/outflows may limit the potential for transient
supercells. As such, the severe threat is not expected to reach
sufficient intensity/coverage to warrant watch issuance.

..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   25688021 25808073 26278134 26898183 27748223 28238216
            28638162 28868121 28868096 28678074 28068046 27518024
            26957996 26677989 26147998 25828000 25718004 25688021 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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