MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 301604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301604 
ILZ000-MOZ000-301800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 301604Z - 301800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near
and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible
with a mix of linear segments and supercells.

DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection
has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves
northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central
Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud
cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that
convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River.
This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being
said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely
certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours,
particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than
points to the west.

Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially
with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the
Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to
very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving
storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind
damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be
maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS
tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph
curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur.

A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is
not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize
enough in the short term for an organized severe threat.

..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083
            39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813
            37738856 37128987 37079078 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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