ACUS01 KWNS 110521
SWODY1
SPC AC 110520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while
progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period.  One
emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another
impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great
Basin by late tonight.  In lower-levels a cold front may precede the
trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the
Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday.

As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North
America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its
east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard.  This is
forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast
of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and
Missouri Valleys.  A preceding front is likely to advance through
much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the
Gulf Coast states.

...Southeast...
In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level
perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the
southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning.  It appears that forcing
for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm
development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period.
However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization
and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally
focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning.

...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada...
Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C
around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the
day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection
capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into
the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western
slopes of the Sierra Nevada.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024

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