ACUS01 KWNS 101228
SWODY1
SPC AC 101226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Synopsis...
General upper-air pattern deamplification is expected over most of
the CONUS through the period, except over:
1.  The West Coast (height falls ahead of an approaching,
high-amplitude synoptic trough) and
2.  The Great Lakes (height falls preceding the ejection of the
cyclone now centered over northwest IA).  The formerly
cut-off/larger cyclone is rejoining the prevailing westerlies, and
will accelerate eastward and weaken over the Great Lakes.  This will
happen as a strong shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel
imagery over eastern/southern AB -- digs east-southeastward toward
Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow, while forming a closed or nearly
closed 500-mb low.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken as its low-
level center and deep convection get more displaced from each other,
per NHC discussions.  The circulation is forecast to continue
weakening, as the low-level vortex loops around the central/west-
central Gulf today, then shift southwestward thereafter.  Refer to
NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity of Rafael.

In between those features, a plume of moist low-level air, cooling
northward at the surface and aloft, will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, near and east of an occluded/cold frontal
zone drawn at 11Z from southern IL across westernmost portions of
KY/TN, western MS, central/southwestern LA, and TX coastal waters.

...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley...
Overall severe potential will be limited by lack of stronger shear
in the south (closer to the coast) where low-level theta-e is
largest, and lack of surface-based instability in the north.  Some
model soundings suggest that surface-based parcels and marginal deep
shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range) may overlap
this afternoon over portions of the Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio
Valley.  While this will need to be monitored, lack of backing in
low-level flow will limit both convergence and hodograph size, amid
weak deep-layer lapse rates and potentially messy convective mode.
At this time, the severe threat appears too low and conditional for
an outlook area.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/10/2024

$$
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