416
WTNT33 KNHC 080845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should
continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


$$
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