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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | Heavy Rain/Flooding GA/SC |
November 7, 2024 8:51 AM * |
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AWUS01 KWNH 071008 FFGMPD SCZ000-GAZ000-071530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1135 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 508 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...Southeast GA...Southern SC... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 071010Z - 071530Z SUMMARY...Flooding likely to continue though potential for intense rain-rates capable of inducing flash flooding reducing with time and overall coverage. DISCUSSION...A large area of 4-10" rainfall extends across eastern GA into southwest to south-central SC with slow expansion toward the coastal Plain over the past few hours. Large scale ascent pattern remains fairly strong with upper-level divergence pattern along right entrance of broad polar jet across the Carolinas. However, the area is shifting east-northeast and reducing slightly. Still, this is maintaining a solid dual fetch of low-level flow from the northeast Gulf as well as off the Gulf stream parallel to the NE FL/GA coast. Cold pool from the heavy rainfall continues to allow for a moderately steep isentropic boundary across the area from SE GA into the Low Country, with a very slow east-southeast drift due to the responding low level inflow from the south-southeast. VWP denotes continued 20-25kts of SE flow nearly orthogonally intersecting the boundary and northeasterly flow across central SC. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis denote deep profile of highly anomalous moisture with values of 2.25" through depth with sfc-850mb over from .9" to 1.15" across the area of concern; so dynamics and moisture continue to be in place to maintain rainfall efficiency. However, unstable air mass continues to diminish in areal coverage and intensity as the profile becomes more staturated and warms aloft; restricting itself to the Gulf Stream and coastal GA where low level flow has been generally divergent before starting to accelerate into SE SC where convergence is maximized. Values of 500-1000 J/kg remain but only along the upstream edge of the complex along the Savannah River Valley. As such, limited overall convection capable of rates over 1.5-2"/hr are expected over the diurnal minimum in activity of early morning/daybreak, mainly near/southeast of mid-level exiting shortwave seen near Wilkenson county, GA or at the 700-850mb low feature seen in RADAR in Montgomery county. Smaller localized spots of 2-4" totals remain possible to induce new incidents of flash flooding though the 15z period. Moderate downstream blow-off shield precipitation within the more gentle isentropic ascent pattern will maintain moderate rainfall rates across the flooded areas from Emanuel to Orangeburg with counties with occasional hourly rates exceeding .5". This will likely help to maintain the expanding riverine flooding as pluvial flooding continues to channel into localized creeks/streams. An additional 2-3" remains possible through the morning hours given favorable upstream redevelopment and training as the upper-level forcing moves northeast. As such, flooding will remain likely across the area of concern, though incidents of flash flooding are considered possible given reducing coverage/intensity required to exceed FFG where heavier rain did not fall last evening/overnight across coastal E GA/S Low Country of SC. Gallina ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34118019 33907956 33397924 32977945 32757980 32578007 32208058 31698098 31418123 31528156 31888193 32048228 31938282 32008307 32298309 32688271 33158214 33478172 33678137 34038071 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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