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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa |
November 7, 2024 8:50 AM * |
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FOUS30 KWBC 070820 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Southeast... Heavy rain continues across Georgia and South Carolina this morning. A nearly stationary front across the region is acting as a focus for that rainfall, which due to an influx of tropical moisture moving into the front from the Atlantic remains stuck. The moisture running into the front is allowing for convective development along the front in Florida and Georgia, which then advect northeastward into South Carolina. While convective coverage has been slowly diminishing, along with the storms with the heaviest rainfall, it's likely that the rain will continue into the day today. The inherited Slight and Marginal risks were largely left unchanged with this update, as the rainfall is generally behaving as expected. Since there will be a very slow drift of the heaviest rainfall towards the South Carolina coast, which due to the swampy terrain is generally much better equipped to handle heavy rainfall rates, a Slight Risk is sufficient to cover the flash flooding threat, rather than a continuation of the Moderate. ...West Texas and Western Oklahoma... A strong upper level low over the Southwest will interact with an LLJ of Gulf moisture and a developing surface low forming ahead of the upper level low. A large area of rain will develop from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles south and east over portions of the Cap Rock of Texas and much of Oklahoma west of Oklahoma City. Instability will be a significant limiting factor on short-term rainfall rates and the strength of any convection, but the fact that all of those synoptic systems just described will be very slow moving should increase the duration of steady rainfall. Since much of this region was hit hard with heavy rain a few days ago, FFGs remain low enough that they should be overcome in widely scattered instances in the Slight Risk area, and in isolated instances in the Marginal Risk region. Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... The upper level low over the Southwest and its attendant surface low will both continue moving northeast across the Plains on Friday. With continued influx of Gulf moisture, the typical comma shaped precipitation footprint will develop from Texas to Oklahoma. Out west in Colorado and New Mexico the precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow. Where it remains all rain, the heaviest rain will be from north Texas across Oklahoma and into south central Kansas. As today, instability will remain the primary limiting factor for heavy rain in most areas, as MUCAPE values generally stay under 1,000 J/kg. For the Slight Risk area, there has been a general eastward/faster shift in the guidance, but that will at least be somewhat offset by the rainfall expected today over the Panhandles and western Oklahoma. The rationale for the Slight is two-fold. While somewhat lesser amounts of rain are expected overall for southern Oklahoma and Texas...greater instability there will favor at least some storms capable of heavy rainfall in that area. Meanwhile, north of Oklahoma City, expect a much longer duration rainfall as the surface low takes its time getting its act together. So while instantaneous rates will likely be lower than further south, it will be made up for by the longer duration of the rain. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... The upper level low that was driving the heavy rainfall the previous two days will move faster towards the northeast as it continues its return to the jet stream over the northern tier of states. The area will still have plenty of moisture from the Gulf to work with as Rafael (or what's left of it) remains over the central Gulf but the plume of moisture its embedded in continues to be drawn north ahead of the surface low's strong cold front. The front will likely be the dominant forcing for storms in this region. As on Friday, the southern areas of Louisiana and Mississippi will have the greater moisture and instability, while further north FFGs are much lower due to recent heavy rainfall. Thus, once again the Slight Risk is a two-fold combination of factors that individually increase the flooding risk. The front should still be slow enough moving that training storms tracking north along the front could still cause flooding problems, especially in Louisiana. Wegman $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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