ACUS02 KWNS 060651
SWODY2
SPC AC 060650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning in the late
afternoon Thursday across parts of west and central Texas. The most
likely corridor for large hail will be over a part of west Texas on
Thursday evening/night.

...West/central TX...
A mid/upper low will drift east across AZ/NM through much of the day
Thursday. By Thursday night, it should accelerate as an attendant
mid-level jet becomes confined to the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a surface ridge will initially nose down the southern
High Plains from an anticyclone over the central High Plains, this
will eventually lose amplitude. Weak cyclogenesis should occur late
in the period along an inverted surface trough in parts of west TX.

A persistent increase in low-level moisture from the western Gulf
will return northwestward through the period. While some elevated
convection will be possible during the day, initially from central
to northwest TX, the bulk of convective development should occur in
the evening/night as the low-level jet broadly intensifies. This
will be coincident with a gradual increase in mid-level height falls
overspreading west TX Thursday night.

A mesoscale corridor of relatively greater supercell potential
appears evident during the evening/night. This appears centered on
parts of the Lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin and the western
Edwards Plateau regions near the surface trough. While low-level
lapse rates should be weak, strong southwesterly speed shear in the
mid to upper levels will be favorable for a primary threat of large
hail with a mix of cells/small clusters. An abrupt cutoff to
surface-based severe convection is expected to the north/west of
this corridor, especially as weak cyclogenesis occurs. While
consistency has increased in guidance relative to 24 hours, where
exactly this demarcation is will likely be modulated by how
widespread elevated convection becomes during the evening to night.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

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