ACUS02 KWNS 130602
SWODY2
SPC AC 130600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the
Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida.

...TN Valley/Southeast States...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS
Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to
progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and
much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow
aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually
spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and
into the Mid-Atlantic.

Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath
the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving
eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will
extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to
make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast
States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early
Wednesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf
Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions
regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location,
coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance
indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying
convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle
vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at
least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with
the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There
is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the
northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass
across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts
will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also
possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution
merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this
outlook.

The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the
airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the
approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass
across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the
early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment.
Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the
warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to
widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front
during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail
and/or damaging wind gusts are possible.

...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains...
A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern
Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly
in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains.
This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with
eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few
thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but
limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm
strength and duration.

..Mosier.. 05/13/2024

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