ACUS02 KWNS 040628
SWODY2
SPC AC 040627

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO
LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on
Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys,
and central to southern Wisconsin.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some
of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast
portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by
mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be
maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating
convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and
large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the
day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the
front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong
gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of
the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to
diminish from south to north during the evening.

Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for
PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to
remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday.

...Central/southern WI...
A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is
evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface
cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI.
Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic
surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper
50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy
immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur
once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in
whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability.
Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection,
low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

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