ACUS02 KWNS 030559
SWODY2
SPC AC 030557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX TO SOUTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday
afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest
Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging
winds should be the main hazards.

...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject
across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the
Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will
be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly
mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the
northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern
Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist
sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning
and the meridional flow regime.

Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered
from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate
linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to
southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the
aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen
slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window
for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective
swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper
60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing
convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into
the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest
oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a
linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature
and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support
potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be
sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along
with scattered damaging winds.

Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear
convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor.
Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward
advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent
shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks
will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based
instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is
low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night.

..Grams.. 11/03/2024

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