ACUS02 KWNS 020553
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday
Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes
parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto
the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest
Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of
the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will
also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of
the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into
the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous
shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the
central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional
cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into
western north TX.

...Central to southern Great Plains...
A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple
rounds of severe potential anticipated.

A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks
southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic
zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in
suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late
morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage
midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone
that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently
indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with
embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies.
Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be
favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still,
this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH
as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some
embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection
should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent
increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these
multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible.

A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may
develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient
will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH
will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat.

Convective development along the dryline near the central High
Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects
of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined
and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will
be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or
two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise,
some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE
and north KS.

..Grams.. 11/02/2024

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