ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian
Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Synopsis...
Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the
western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday.  As this system
shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into
the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls
will occur across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas
eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of
the moist Gulf low-level airmass.  This boundary -- in response to
persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat
northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded
by convective outflow.  The result will likely become a convectively
reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity
east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent,
regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the
period.

...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into
central and northern Oklahoma...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern
Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the
southern fringe of this convection.  South of the convection, some
heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the
Transpecos/Permian Basin region.  Here, an afternoon increase in
convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to
occur.  Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely
evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases.
Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent
into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds
of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally
strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a
tornado or two.  This potential should persist well into the
overnight hours.

..Goss.. 11/01/2024

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