ACUS01 KWNS 011618
SWODY1
SPC AC 011617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the
southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of
stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley.  This low-level moisture
coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located
over the Hill Country and Deep South TX.  The timelapse of
water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale
trough over the West.  A lead lower-latitude disturbance over
northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican
border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough
over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong
southwesterly mid-level flow.

A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream
of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern
High Plains.  Model guidance continues to indicate widely
spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and
into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level
moisture.  Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this
evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a
southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS.
This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level
theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening
MUCINH.  The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce
severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still
appears to be on the  marginal side, due to lack of greater
instability/buoyancy.

..Smith/Moore.. 11/01/2024

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