ACUS02 KWNS 300556
SWODY2
SPC AC 300554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts, will be
possible Thursday afternoon along a narrow corridor from the Sabine
River Valley north-northeastward into far southern Lower Michigan.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio
Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 70 to 80
knot mid-level speed max, will move northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
destabilization in most areas by midday. Convection is expected to
initiate along and ahead the front during the late morning as
surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorms should gradually increase
in coverage in the afternoon, moving eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

Model solutions appear to present two scenarios. The first solution,
which is depicted by the NAM, initiates convection near the front
around midday from east-central Texas north-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, with a second north-to-south band of storms
developing much further east in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
second solution, which is depicted by the ECMWF, focuses most of the
convection further east near the center of the low-level moisture
corridor in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Strong outflow from
the previous night's convection is forecast to surge southeastward
across much of central and east Texas Thursday morning, which could
favor the second scenario, with an effective frontal boundary much
further east.

The severe threat should be concentrated along and near the axis of
the strongest low-level flow, which is forecast to be in the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
near the moist axis in the afternoon have MLCAPE peaking from around
500 J/kg in the lower Ohio Valley to 1500 J/kg in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along much
of the moist axis, where low-level lapse rates could peak near 7
C/km in areas that heat up the most. This environment will likely
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with
the stronger and more organized multicells. A marginal tornado
threat may also develop, mainly from western Tennessee
south-southwestward into northern Louisiana, where the combination
of instability and shear is forecast to be maximized, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

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