ACUS01 KWNS 231255
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft
as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong
winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface
dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of
an east/southeastward-moving cold front.

Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with
1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the
southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop
farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions
with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and
deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to
develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the
front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal
confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large
hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer
shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk
mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms
is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts
east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025

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