ACUS01 KWNS 291224
SWODY1
SPC AC 291222

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper
Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and
southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe
hail and/or wind.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and
Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the
central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper
trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly
low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing
warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and
southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend
by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across
Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains.

Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal
low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally
based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating
cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in
the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start
across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early
as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent
southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly
the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a
conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist
coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength
of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy
regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized
potential for severe hail and wind late tonight.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024

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