FOUS30 KWBC 290824
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

During this period a mid-level trough is expected to eject into 
the Plains by Wednesday morning, and in turn, surface troughing 
will draw Gulf moisture northward ahead of an approaching cold 
front. Cooler air filtering in from the west/north will encounter 
the warm air advection associated with the low-level jet.
Convection over the region is expected to increase in both coverage
and intensity. The Storm Prediction Center as highlighted a Slight
Risk for severe storms for portions of the Plains and Mississippi
Valley. This favorable setup will also increase the potential for 
heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. 

There continues to be two distinct areas swaths of higher QPF. The
first remains focused near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and 
Arkansas state borders amid areas of higher instability. The second
area continues to have a run-to-run westward trend and is now spans
from northeast Kansas to north-central Wisconsin near the stronger
height falls. With this westward shift the Marginal Risk area was
altered in shape to reflect this trend and as such reduced/removed
portions of the eastern boundary from Illinois, eastern Iowa and
Missouri while expanding further into Nebraska, west-central Iowa
and southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin Very dry antecedent 
conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG 
guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems 
appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future 
guidance (including the CAM guidance).

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

The upper level trough will continue to advance through the Upper
Midwest which will send the cold front through the eastern portions
of the Southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong to 
severe thunderstorms will persist for areas along and ahead of the 
advancing frontal boundary per SPC (Marginal Risk); which will 
shift the heavy rain potential to the central Gulf Coast to 
western Kentucky where there is a Marginal Risk area for excessive
rainfall. Areal averages will be in the 1 to 2 inch range with
locally higher amounts possible.

Campbell
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