ACUS02 KWNS 290555
SWODY2
SPC AC 290553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are
expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains
extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and
Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over
the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is
forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday
afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward
into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri
Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over
much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected
to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending
northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated
severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during
the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to
take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster
or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas
extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow,
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich
low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable
for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area,
NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z,
with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This
environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and
severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible
with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in
size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells
and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the
convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a
wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most
favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms
embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line.
Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily
discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe
wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop
southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A
severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and
perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through
the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2024

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