FOUS30 KWBC 280809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the central portion of the country; which in turn will
increase the potential for heavy rainfall and local areas of
concern for flooding. The inherited old Day 4 Marginal Risk area
was maintained with minor expansions across portions of Texas and
across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to reflect the latest WPC QPF
and model trends. At this point there appears to be two distinct
areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first near the
juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders and the
second near the juncture of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois. Given the current FFG guidance and drier
antecedant conditions, a Marginal still seems most appropriate for
the level of risk. Should newer guidance continue to trend higher 
an embedded Slight Risk may need to be considered as the event gets
closer.

Campbell
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