ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are
expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi
Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern
Plains.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the
eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains
as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and
convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective
initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
within the mid to late evening, where instability should be
sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is
expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with
additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern
Plains.

The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable
area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri
Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings
near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping
inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective
shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail.
Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be
elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the
front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell
that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce
isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a
marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening
low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding
south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and
lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an
outlook upgrade at this time.

..Broyles.. 10/28/2024

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