ACUS02 KWNS 220600
SWODY2
SPC AC 220559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson
Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday
morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress
throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as
the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany
this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current
expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast
from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across
the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints),
limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along
and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in
isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level
westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented
gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective
line.

Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection
along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of
any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust
convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible
with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance
will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities
will be needed in later outlooks.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front
will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during
the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability
profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 10/22/2024

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