ACUS11 KWNS 200056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200056=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...West-central Kentucky into middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

Valid 200056Z - 200300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado and damaging wind threat for the next few
hours will likely be focused across parts of central to western
Kentucky and into northern middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop southward along and
just ahead of the dryline across western KY into western TN. Weak
storm motions off the boundary are favoring slow upscale growth into
semi-discrete cells and clusters, but several shallow, but
intensifying, discrete cells have recently developed across middle
TN ahead of the developing line. The deeper/more intense cells are
showing signs of organized mid-level mesocyclones, suggesting that
they are beginning to realize the strongly sheared environment.
Recent VWP observations from KOHX show 1-2 km winds increasing to
60-70 knots as the low-level jet strengthens. Middle TN is likely on
the southern periphery of the developing low-level jet, but as
storms move north into the stronger low-level flow/higher SRH
environment they may continue to organize and pose a more robust
tornado/damaging wind threat in the coming hours across parts of
west-central KY and northern middle TN. To the west, the continued
organization of the squall line may favor and increasing damaging
wind threat downstream. It remains unclear quickly onset of
nocturnal cooling and slowly diminishing buoyancy will offset this
potential.

..Moore.. 03/20/2025

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36528818 37178769 38008719 38248680 38378617 38228573
            37948565 37468573 36908581 36418606 36058633 35818668
            35638706 35738752 35848785 36028812 36208823 36528818
            
ACUS11 KWNS 200048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200048=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-200215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...Indiana and southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

Valid 200048Z - 200215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken -- and gradually
weakening -- band of pre-frontal storms moving eastward across
central and northern Indiana.  While more vigorous cells within this
band persist farther south -- into portions of Tornado Watch 58
where slightly greater surface dewpoints (low to mid 50s) exist, the
prior, limited tornado risk over central and northern Indiana has
further diminished.  While a brief spin-up is still possible, the
predominant severe risk will remain locally damaging wind gusts.  In
the wake of the initial band, a second band of frontal convection
near the Illinois/Indiana border will reach western fringes of WW 59
over the next hour or so -- which may bring an additional chance for
wind gusts in excess of severe levels locally.  Overall though, a
gradual/nocturnal decrease in storm intensity within both of the
aforementioned bands will continue over the next few hours.

..Goss.. 03/20/2025

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   38928648 40288613 41368612 42058597 42198519 41468479
            40198458 39008489 38728518 38928648
            
$$
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