ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High
Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low.

...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an
open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate
eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the
southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued
surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very
modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley
anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly
move eastward along with the upper trough.

...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity...
A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account
of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential
for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather
cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until
mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold
enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could
support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the
mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe
weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally
severe hail are possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

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