ACUS02 KWNS 170449
SWODY2
SPC AC 170447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento
Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail,
locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse
splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue
digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during
this period.  This appears likely to be accompanied by notable
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch
into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by
late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger
westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coast.

To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper
Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained,
with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low
only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic
coast.  Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface
ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing
influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast
region.

Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest
moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from
northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the
southern Rockies.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening
surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the
central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak
boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential
late Friday afternoon and evening.  Farther south, from the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico
border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization
may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.

In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of
the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday
evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern
slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing
boundary-layer destabilization.  Coupled with steepening mid-level
lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for
ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing
up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying
thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles
probably will become supportive of supercell structures with
potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts.  The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs
around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of
a tornado around 06Z Friday night.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

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