ACUS03 KWNS 100730
SWODY3
SPC AC 100729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains on Sunday.

...Southern Plains...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the
central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning,
accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from
northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is
forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern
High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and
southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow
will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower
MS Valley.

The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern
Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's
thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early
morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a
large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into
western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General
cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to
persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level
moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this
cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in
fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the
cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this
corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant
to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along
and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong
enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the
primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution,
and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher
that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook.

...Upper Midwest...
A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are
forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An
attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the
Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely
destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid
low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm
development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear
should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting
the overall severe potential.

..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

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