ACUS01 KWNS 161214
SWODY1
SPC AC 161213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified, yet still quite progressive
pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS.  A leading
synoptic trough was initially positioned from a low near Anticosti
Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestward across New
England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic region, and the southern
Appalachians, to parts of AR and eastern OK.  The southern
Appalachian part of the trough is expected to consolidate into a
closed cyclone as it moves eastward across the Carolinas and VA,
with a well-defined 500-mb low expected over the Outer Banks
vicinity by 12Z tomorrow.  However, associated surface frontal-wave
cyclogenesis and related elevated thunder potential in the wrapping
conveyor both should remain offshore.  The trailing cold front --
analyzed at 11Z from central FL across the north-central Gulf to
near CRP and across south-central TX -- will support isolated
thunderstorm potential today over parts of south FL and deep south
TX before moving south of both areas.

Meanwhile, a synoptic-scale trough -- with several embedded small
shortwaves/vorticity lobes -- is apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from the AK Panhandle south-southeastward, just offshore of
and parallel to the CONUS Pacific Coast. As these features move
ashore today, preceded by several other vorticity lobes, height
falls and colder air aloft will spread inland, steepening midlevel
lapse rates atop marginal low/middle-level moisture over parts of
the Pacific Northwest and a broad area of the Intermountain West/
Great Basin, with low-level warm advection and diabatic heating also
aiding instability in the interior swath.  Isolated thunderstorms
should result.

..Edwards/Goss.. 10/16/2024

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