ACUS11 KWNS 151304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151304 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-151430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Louisiana into northern
Mississippi and extreme southwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

Valid 151304Z - 151430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 44. The
potential for tornadoes (some strong) will only increase into the
morning hours. Severe wind and hail will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection continues to increase in coverage
and intensity along a baroclinic zone characterizing the
northwestern bounds of the free warm sector. Recently, storms along
the southern extent of this convective band have developed supercell
characteristics, with pronounced low-level mesocyclones noted via
KSHV radar data. 12Z JAN and LCH soundings show mid-level lapse
rates above 8.5 C/km, along with rich low-level moisture and large,
curved/elongated hodographs already in place, which is highly
supportive of tornadic supercells. Through the morning hours,
increased boundary-layer heating and ascent from the approaching
upper trough should only boost shear/buoyancy further, resulting in
a continued increasing severe threat. All severe hazards will be
possible, including strong tornadoes, particularly with the more
sustained supercells with unimpeded inflow.

..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31879333 32919243 34569055 35398920 35328852 34458835
            33768881 32679047 32019130 31449182 31209250 31879333 

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