ACUS02 KWNS 160442
SWODY2
SPC AC 160440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper flow will become increasingly split
across western North America during this period, as initially
consolidated large-scale troughing progresses inland.  One notable
embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across
and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar
trailing perturbation digs inland of the northern Pacific coast,
through areas near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great
Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

To the east of the Rockies, the primary and secondary surface
cyclogenesis likely will accompany the lead impulse into the higher
latitudes of interior Canada.  The trailing cold front may surge
east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario
by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great
Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, the
Black Hills vicinity, and the higher terrain of southern
Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin.

Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of
confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the
western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is
forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians
vicinity.  This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable
stabilizing influence as far south as the northern Gulf of Mexico
and Gulf coast vicinity.

...Pacific coast into Great Plains...
It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft, and the lack of
sufficient low-level moisture return, will preclude an appreciable
risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep
surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into
Front Range vicinity.  However, large-scale forcing for ascent and
cooling aloft, spreading across the Pacific Northwest into the Great
Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night, probably will
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas
of weak thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/16/2024

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