ACUS01 KWNS 151242
SWODY1
SPC AC 151241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the
CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes
and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St.
Lawrence River region.  The associated 500-mb low should drift
erratically near its present location for most of today, then move
northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight.  A
strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over
the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region,
westward across the upper Mississippi Valley.  This trough will
pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend
from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas,
northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region.  Associated cold
air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by
boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture
will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of
Lakes Erie and Michigan today.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual,
quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped
across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL.  This thunder
potential should persist episodically through the period, with some
inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and
perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL.  A stronger
boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold
front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East
Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift.  In the Four Corners region,
isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface
dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support
weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE.

..Edwards.. 10/15/2024

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