ACUS02 KWNS 150435
SWODY2
SPC AC 150434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific
Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday
afternoon into evening.  Additional thunderstorm development is
possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida
Keys.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across
the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this
period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to
continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the
Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains.  Within this
regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress
inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies
by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into
the northern Pacific coast.  A remnant perturbation already inland
to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become
absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the
Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward.

Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the
Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent
over the subtropical Atlantic.  Initially amplified large-scale
troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic
Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just
before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit
less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the
base of the troughing.  It appears that this feature may contribute
to the evolution  of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid
Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the
eastern Gulf Coast region.  However, associated surface wave
development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well
east of the Mid Atlantic coast.

As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing
to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of
initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies
is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri
Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity.  However, the
ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence
across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening
is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of
the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico.

...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities...
While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance
away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is
forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken
across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas
coast/Rio Grande vicinity.  Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and
widely scattered thunderstorm activity.

...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies...
Despite limited moisture availability,  mid/upper forcing for
ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak
thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024

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