ACUS02 KWNS 140444
SWODY2
SPC AC 140442

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this
period.  Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue
to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant
embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valleys.  Peak amplitude may be reached along a
positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after
12Z Wednesday.

In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is
forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf
of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from
the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great
Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of
the short wave.

To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale
troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime
emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British
Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night.
With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the
immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies.

Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in
excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to
portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the
Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night.  While some elevated
moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into
parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are
expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the
Rockies.

One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core
(including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the
upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day.
Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to
diurnal convective development which might become capable of
producing occasional lightning.

While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West,
modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air
aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might
also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2024

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