FOUS30 KWBC 130801
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA URBAN CORRIDOR...

No changes were made to the inherited Marginal risk area over the
southeast FL urban corridor. Isolated convection will be ongoing at
12z this morning along the coastal convergence axis...with another
round of activity likely this afternoon. It is the afternoon
convection that appears to have better instability to work with, 
and thus a better chance of more robust development. Coverage 
remains a question, but high res guidance suggests a weak surface 
trough/wave moving across south FL should help locally enhance 
convergence this afternoon. 

With any deeper convection tapping into the stronger westerly flow
aloft, the tendency may be for cells to have more of an eastward 
motion this afternoon, limiting rainfall duration as cells move 
offshore. However if low level easterly flow is strong enough 
and/or the low level convergence axis is persistent enough, then 
we could see at least some cell training for a period of time. 
Overall the ingredients are in place to suggest a localized flash 
flood risk is a possibility. HREF guidance supports isolated 3" 
totals, but there is minimal model support for amounts much higher
than that. The Marginal risk should cover this isolated urban 
flash flood threat...as not seeing enough support for Slight risk 
level impacts/coverage at this time.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)