ACUS02 KWNS 130431
SWODY2
SPC AC 130430

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs for this
period, with the mid-latitude westerlies forecast to remain modestly
amplified but generally progressive Monday through Monday night.
Within this regime, it appears that initially more prominent ridging
over the Canadian Prairies will begin to break down.  As the ridge
axis takes on a more notable positive tilt (toward Hudson Bay), the
axis of large-scale downstream troughing will gradually do the same
across the eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes.

Within the cyclonic flow, a significant lead short wave impulse
remains forecast to be accompanied by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
into the Canadian Maritimes/St. Lawrence Valley.  As a similar
trailing perturbation digs across the international border and Upper
Midwest, toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface
ridging is forecast to build southward into much of the interior
U.S. by the end of the period.

It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance
through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the
mid-level cold core (shifting across the upper Great Lakes) and
upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk
for thunderstorms.  As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of
Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level
shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of
tropical moisture, likely will gradually shift southeast of the
southern Florida Peninsula and Keys.

Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to
develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies.  However, a
weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be
maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and
southwest of the Four Corners region.  Mid/upper forcing for ascent
and cooling to the northeast of this feature may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support convection capable of
producing lightning across the higher terrain of Utah/adjacent
northern Arizona into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

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