ACUS02 KWNS 120452
SWODY2
SPC AC 120451

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop in a corridor across West Virginia,
and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia, late Sunday afternoon and evening.  Some may be
accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
North America will remain amplified through this period, with
further amplification of large-scale troughing forecast across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.  Models indicate
at least of couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging
within this troughing, one of which may contribute to modest surface
cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast by late Sunday night.

In lower latitudes, a residual mid-level shear axis across the
central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will generally
demarcate the northern periphery of higher moisture content air.
However, a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead
of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest
destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon.

...West Virginia into eastern Kentucky/southwest Virginia...
There remains variability among the models concerning the evolution
of surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Sunday through Sunday night.  However, there still appears a general
consensus that a moistening, but well-mixed, boundary layer will
become characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late
Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow pre-frontal corridor
across Tennessee/Kentucky into West Virginia.  It appears that peak
destabilization will coincide with strengthening westerly deep-layer
wind fields, including to 50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer.  Forcing
for ascent in advance of stronger mid-level height falls, which may
not begin overspreading the region until after dark, remains more
unclear.  However, a developing pre-frontal low-level upslope flow
component may aid thunderstorm initiation across parts of West
Virginia, and perhaps into eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia by early Sunday evening.  If this occurs, the environment
probably will be conducive to a few stronger storms posing a risk
for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/12/2024

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