ACUS01 KWNS 111245
SWODY1
SPC AC 111244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may
persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity
before diminishing as modest warm advection with a
south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning.

A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related
instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front,
cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough
may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this
afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce
occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow
through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low.
The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast
tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which
should hinder thunderstorm potential.

Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south
FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm
temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated
lightning flashes.

A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR
vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur
offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024

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