963
WTNT34 KNHC 101152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...CENTER OF MILTON PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE
SPACE COAST...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warnings south of Sebastian Inlet and north of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line have been changed to Tropical Storm
Warnings.

The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida west coast has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet northward to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 79.5 West.  Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
east tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Milton will
continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the
Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to
become a powerful extratropical low tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).  A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to
76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in
Marineland.  A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 67
mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at the Cocoa-Patrick Air Force Base.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast
through this morning.  This rainfall will continue to bring the risk
of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to
major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are occurring
within the hurricane warning area in Florida.  Tropical storm
conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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