FOUS30 KWBC 100827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

Heavy rainfall from Milton continues to quickly move east across
the Florida Peninsula. Additional rain of 1 to 4 inches is likely
over the next couple hours along portions of the central and
northern FL east coast. However based on recent radar and HRRR 
trends it appears likely that most, if not all, of this heavier 
rain will be offshore by 12z this morning. Thus while areas of 
considerable flash flooding will continue over the next few hours, 
the expectation is that additional flash flooding after 12z will be
minimal. For that reason we will carry only a Marginal risk on the
new day 1 ERO that goes into effect at 12z this morning. The 
ongoing High risk remains valid for the next couple hours until 
12z. Keep in mind that even after the heavy rain ends, significant
areal and river flooding will continue to be a concern in areas 
that have received significant rainfall.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

d
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)