ACUS02 KWNS 100529
SWODY2
SPC AC 100528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend from the
Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern
Quebec into New England throughout the day on Friday. A shortwave
trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress
quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec and adjacent portions of
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. An associated surface low
will move across Ontario just ahead of this shortwave, with an
attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the
northern/central Plains, the Upper/Mid MS Valley, and the Upper
Great Lakes. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of this low,
limiting the thunderstorm potential along most of the front. Some
modest buoyancy may develop across the Upper Great Lakes region
where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling
mid-level temperatures. This may result in deep enough updrafts for
a few lightning flashes between 18Z and 00Z.

Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to drift
southeastward from OK into the Lower MS Valley. Cold mid-level
temperatures will accompany this shortwave, and lingering warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms may result in a few lightning
flashes across eastern OK and northeast TX Friday morning.

Lastly, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected to persist
across central and southern FL throughout the period. Some showers
are likely throughout the day amid confluent low-level northeasterly
flow. However, warm temperatures aloft will limit storm depth
throughout much of the period across the region. The environment
across south FL is expected to become more conducive to deep
convection late Friday night/early Saturday morning as mid-level
temperature cool slightly and low-level flow trends more
southeasterly. Consequently, a few flashes are possible across south
FL and/or the Keys after 00Z.

..Mosier.. 10/10/2024

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