758
WTNT34 KNHC 092055
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto
Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast
north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and
for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita
Beach have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West.  Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward
the east on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this
evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Milton could still be a major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it
will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida
through Thursday.  Milton is forecast to weaken over the western
Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM)
recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a
wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the
Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.  This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are
possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of
Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach
the east coast this evening or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong
tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of
central and southern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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