ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces
early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will
extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton
within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This
cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern
Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the
western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the
majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone,
precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across
the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton.

Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the
Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario
Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to
dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough
moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale
ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK.
A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across
south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the
modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures
attendant to this shortwave.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton
maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL
Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning
position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and
southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated
greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will
support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a
low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent
convection.

..Mosier.. 10/09/2024

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