ACUS01 KWNS 041259
SWODY1
SPC AC 041257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds,
and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A
couple strong tornadoes will be possible.

...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern
Appalachians/Southeast...

Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough
moving east across the central and southern High Plains this
morning.  Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the
larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a
100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX
through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South
tonight.  Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into
the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east
across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight.

A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX
north-northeastward into eastern OK.  Intense shear profiles within
an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts
with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves
east across eastern OK/TX this morning.  A risk for a few tornadoes
will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across
the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day.  Forecast
soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale
rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can
develop ahead of the squall line.  Strong tornado potential exists
given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal
destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in
storm intensity/coverage.

This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves
east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley.  A
continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the
primary severe hazards.  Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk
equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and
southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat
appear greatest.

...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois...
As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through
the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying
the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates.  Any daytime heating
in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern
Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped
convective redevelopment.  Assuming this scenario manifests, a
couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for
hail/wind and possibly a tornado.  Any such risk would taper by evening.

Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated
storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local
risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours.

..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025

$$
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