ACUS02 KWNS 080519
SWODY2
SPC AC 080517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures
are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over
western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this
shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking
it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of
this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest
into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected
to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper
Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this
broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley.

A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection
near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but
the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in
these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution
of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles
north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue
northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the
west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then
expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level
flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the
day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will
also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible
via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern
peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While
its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective
bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably
timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado
threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection.

For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest
track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest
forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024

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