ACUS02 KWNS 070624
SWODY2
SPC AC 070622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may
occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region
on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest
storms.

...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday
morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will
already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast,
though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley
late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the
approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over
north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20
corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will
extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level
flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary.

Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first
couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX.
Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the
central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is
forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with
forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible.
Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in
organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can
become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential
will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2025

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