804
WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...

...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte
Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake
Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward
and westward to Indian Pass.  A Tropical Storm Warning has also been
issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including
the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
southward to Flamingo.  A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the
mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts.  Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  While fluctuations in intensity are
expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin soon.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch
areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible
beginning Wednesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida
beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.

SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
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