ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL
and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across
the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the
southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the
low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and
vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as
daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear
possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the
overall severe threat appears too limited to include any
probabilities at this time.

Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts
of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with
additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across
parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be
noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection
possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an
upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based
thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward.

..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024

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