ACUS02 KWNS 060548
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east
central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on
Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the
risk for severe weather appears negligible.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded
cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec,
with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian
Maritimes by early Friday.  The new cyclone center is then generally
forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador
through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic
mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger
across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast.

Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level
low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified
belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad
downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the
subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow
becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great
Plains.

A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West
is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and
through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low
transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains
through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.  Models indicate that
the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland
Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday
night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of
central Texas toward the end of the period.

Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop
across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas.
However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry
air in the lower/mid-troposphere.

...Arizona into New Mexico...
A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems
likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development
beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into
Four Corners states Friday through Friday night.  However, the
latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that
thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to
convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night,
near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into
parts of the Colorado Plateau.

...Central into northeast Texas...
Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone
downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated
destabilization by late Friday night.  Erosion of mid-level
inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of
scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z
Saturday.

..Kerr.. 03/06/2025

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