AWUS01 KWNH 061440
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061439Z - 062030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are showing minimal movement
across portions of South Florida.  Localized rainfall totals up to
5 inches are possible through 430 pm, and this will likely result
in some instances of flooding.

Discussion...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming near
sea breeze boundaries and in the general proximity of a stationary
front situated across southern Florida late this morning, and also
ahead of a mid-level vortmax that is slowly approaching the
southwest coast of Florida.  Anomalous precipitable water values
on the order of 2.3 to 2.6 inches are in place, per recent SPC
mesoanalysis.  Another concern is the very slow cell movements
that have been observed by regional Doppler radar imagery over the
past several hours, and this will likely remain the case going
into the afternoon hours, with weak low level inflow and mean
850-300 hPa flow.  In addition, mixed layer CAPE is on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg, which is being aided by midday solar insolation.

The latest CAM guidance suite depicts an increase in slow moving
convection across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula
through the mid-late afternoon hours, with localized rainfall
totals on the order of 4 to 6 inches possible.  Areas of the West
Coast have picked up a few inches of rain over the past 24 hours,
and this also holds true for areas near and to the south of Miami,
and this will be an aggravating factor for flooding potential
today.  Hourly rain totals to 3 inches are possible, which will
likely lead to some instances of flash flooding for urban and poor
drainage areas.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   27728071 27568016 26987993 26117990 25518007 
            25088030 24818064 25048121 25608163 26128211 
            26528230 26938256 27188265 27228266 27428259 
            27428213 27308167 27388128 
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